Showing posts with label Sarah Palin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sarah Palin. Show all posts

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Veepstakes! Update: Palin Around and other updates

Looks like I got on the bandwagon just before the train left the station (How's THAT for a mixed metaphor!) as CNN's Political Markets have placed Palin fourth in the race for #2, behind only Romney, Crist and Pawlenty. That's pretty good odds for the darkhorse from Alaska!

I'll reiterate here that Palin is a brilliant candidate that would really shake up the race. She's got the poise, the integrity and the personality to make a great Vice President, and of course a great president one day. I can't talk her up more highly. Tell your friends (particularly if they voted Hillary)

Some other facts have emerged in the race that bear weight on the odds as I had them. Here they are in short...

  • Mitt Romney has emerged as a Top McCain Surrogate and apparently has made nice enough for McCain insiders to say he's currently the top contender. (Boosts Odds)
  • Bobby Jindal gets in a fight with the state legislature of Louisiana that reminds people just how green he is. (Drops Odds)
  • Tim Pawlenty, McCain's supposed odds-on favorite, gets dumped from that spot while polls show his home state out of reach for McCain even with T-Paw on the ticket. (Drops Odds)
  • Charlie Crist gets engaged and changes his positions on Offshore drilling effectively but stays way too orange for his own good. (Boosts Odds)
  • Rob Portman raises massive amounts of cash for McCain, actually gives a pretty good speech. Who knew? (Boosts Odds)
  • Bloomberg's popularity in NY drops, he fights with state goverment. (Drops Odds)
  • Huckabee goes... somewhere. Says... something. No one cares. (Drops Odds)
  • Palin mania breaks out among the GOP chattering classes. (Boosts Odds)
And so we are left with this-

Ex-Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)- 4 to 1 (Good Pick)
Gov. Sara Palin (R-AK)- 5 to 1 (Best Pick)
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)- 6 to 1 (Bad Pick)
Gov. Charlie "Supertan" Crist (R-FL)- 8 to 1 (Mixed Bag)
Hon. Rob Portman (R-OH)- 10 to 1 (OK Pick)
Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AK)-12 to 1 (Good Pick)
Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA)- 15 to 1 (Good Pick)
Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN)- 30 to 1 (Good Pick)
Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)- 35 to 1 (OK Pick)
Mayor Micheal Bloomberg (I-NY)- 40 to 1 (Mixed Bag)
Hon. Colin Powell (R-CA)- 100 to 1 (Good Pick)


I'd be happy with either name on the top of that list. Governor Romney is a great Republican on economic issues (his one consistent front) and Governor Palin is the new face of the GOP.

Hey if McCain looses what do you think? Palin-Romney 2012? Romney-Palin 2012?

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Veepstakes! Update: An interesting comment on Fox News Sunday

Watching the "Power Panel" on the wonderful Fox News Sunday broadcast, there was some discussion of Flip-Flopping- including McCain's own on offshore drilling. The host, Chris Wallace (the Dean of the Sunday Shows after the passing of Tim Russert), asked the brilliant William Kristol the following-

WALLACE: Bill, how important are the Clintons? And will Bill Clinton stop sulking in his tent like Achilles and behave?

FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR BILL KRISTOL: Psychoanalyzing Bill Clinton is a tough task. I think Hillary Clinton was gracious. She's put behind her the horrible sexism and misogyny that Democratic primary voters demonstrated, which I'm appalled by, personally. Never would have happened in the Republican Party, you know?

Republicans are much more open to strong women. And that's why McCain's going to put Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska, on the ticket as vice president.

WALLACE: Is that your prediction?

KRISTOL: I'm moving from Jindal to Palin. She's fantastic. You know, she was the point guard on the Alaska state championship high school basketball team in 1982. She could take Obama one on one on the court. It would be fantastic.

Anyway, I do think -- I actually think Sarah Palin would be a great vice presidential pick, and it would be interesting to actually have a woman on the Republican ticket after Hillary Clinton has come so close and failed on the Democratic side.

FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR JUAN WILLIAMS: Well, how about Colin Powell on the McCain ticket? Don't you think that would be a winner?

KRISTOL: No, no, no.

WILLIAMS: No?

KRISTOL: That's, again, misogynist thinking, you know?

WILLIAMS: Misogynist thinking?

KRISTOL: You have to go for the gold here with Sarah Palin. She's great. She's a reform governor.

WILLIAMS: Mother of five, I believe.

KRISTOL: Mother of five. Ethics, incredible record of cleaning up -- she took on her own corrupt Republican Party in the state, cut spending.

WALLACE: Of course, they'd have a problem on ANWR, since she's for drilling in ANWR and he's against it.

KRISTOL: And she could persuade McCain to take the last step to the sensible position on energy and gas, which is to be for drilling...

WALLACE: Can we please get off Sarah Palin?

KRISTOL: ... for drilling in ANWR.


Later on Wallace asked Kristol this-

WALLACE: But to be fair, Bill, let's bring in McCain, because he has made a lot of changes. And the one point I disagree with with Brit, some of them are recent -- for instance, drilling. He has flipped on that in just the last couple of weeks.

KRISTOL: Voters tend not to blame candidates if they adjust their views, A, based on a plausible notion that circumstances have changed. If gas prices are $4.50, the relative value of preserving a pristine -- in a pristine way this worthless wasteland up in northern Alaska, ANWR, changes...

HUME: But he hasn't flipped on that.

KRISTOL: No, he hasn't flipped on that. That's the next flip, when he puts Sarah Palin on the ticket.

Sounds like the good folk at Draft Sarah Palin are going to have another name to add to there list of endorsers...

In any case such a high-profile endorsement gives her a nice bump in my odds

Sarah Palin ODDS- 12 to 1

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Veepstakes! The Final McCain Tally

So, I've written on the 11 candidates I think are on McCain's "Shortlist" and given them odds on weather or not I think they'll be the pick. The complete list is below-

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)- 5 to 1 (Bad Pick)
Ex-Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)- 6 to 1 (Good Pick)
Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AK)- 8 to 1 (Good Pick)
Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA)- 10 to 1 (Good Pick)
Gov. Charlie "Supertan" Crist (R-FL)- 14 to 1 (Mixed Bag)
Gov. Sara Palin (R-AK)- 19 to 1 (Good Pick)
Mayor Micheal Bloomberg (I-NY)- 25 to 1 (Mixed Bag)
Hon. Rob Portman (R-OH)- 30 to 1 (OK Pick)
Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN)- 30 to 1 (Good Pick)
Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)- 35 to 1 (OK Pick)
Hon. Colin Powell (R-CA)- 100 to 1 (Good Pick)

But I have not made a definitive choice on who I would like to see as JMac's #2. Well wonder no longer! Below is my ordered list from best to worst pick for the Mac Attack's #2 spot. I have left Secretary Powell off the list because of his extremely long odds.

10. Rob Portman
9. Joe Lieberman
8. Fred Thompson
7. Charlie Crist
6.Tim Pawlenty
5. Micheal Bloomberg
4. Mike Huckabee
3. Bobby Jindal
2. Mitt Romney

and my Number one choice is...

1. Gov. Sara Palin (R-AK). If you want to learn more about the good governor, visit the fine folk at Draft Palin for VP.

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Veepstakes! Vol. 3- McCain's Darkhorses

Welcome back to Veepstakes! In this installment I'll be going over the 5 "Darkhorse" candidates for McCain's Veep spot. The rules remain the same as my previous installments, I'll give you the name, the Pro's and Con's from an electoral standpoint, My Take on them as a candidate and the Odds they'll take the nom (As darkhorses, expect the odds here to be high). Here's a quick recap of McCain's Big Five (the odds have changed some since then)

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)- 5 to 1 (Bad Pick)
Ex-Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)- 6 to 1 (Upgraded to Good Pick)
Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AK)- 8 to 1 (Good Pick)
Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA)- 10 to 1 (Good Pick)
Gov. Charlie "Supertan" Crist (R-FL)- 14 to 1 (Mixed Bag)

Onward!

JOHN MCCAIN-


Micheal R. Bloomberg- Billionaire Mayor of the City of New York (Go New York!). Democrat turned Republican turned Independent. Man who made the rim of manhattan green, with both money and parks.

Pros- Want to appeal to independents? Theres no one more independent then the financial mougul, he's feuded with everyone under the sun and backed a wide array of politicians from almost every state and political affiliation. With Bloomberg on the ticket McCain locks up the "Post-Partisan" mantel, particularly if Hillary is on the dem ticket. With Bloomberg and Lieberman both backing McC, Obama can kiss most of the Jewish Vote goodbye. Having a self-made billionaire on the ticket helps shore up economic cred in a major way. He makes McCain competitive in New Jersey, Connecticut, and parts of New England. His brand of politics could also help McCain in California. There's also the slight matter that rumors swirl that he'd spend over 500 MILLION @$!^ING DOLLARS OF HIS OWN MONEY to get elected Veep.

Cons- Remeber those hardliner conservatives that are teetering on the edge of voting for McCain? I'd say half of them vote for Bob Barr. The man is notoriously disloyal to his political affiliation, he runs through parties like an infant through diapers. His Jewish affiliation might also push some of the "Insane" vote out of the party. Picking him would make him... the presumptive republican nominee in 4-8 years? That just sounds wrong... In order to get him on the ticket, McCain would have to promise to let him set the economic agenda as some sort of Super Treasury Secretary.

My Take- for McCain to pick bloomberg he has to first secure the support of the hard right in at least getting a cease fire. As sad as it sounds, Rush Limbaugh and the gang could severly hurt McCain in the south if they wanted to. If McCain can secure a cease fire, he's a great pick. If not, he's not worth it.

ODDS- 25 to 1

Sarah Palin- Current republican Governor of the State of Alaska. That's right, Alaska.

Pros- A Former Beauty Queen, Palin is a lifelong NRA member and an avid hunter. She's cut taxes across the board and has made large budget cuts for pork barrel projects. She's known for her creative ways to cut costs, including selling the governors private jet on eBay. despite supporting a ban on Gay Marriage, she has vetoed laws that would prevent gay couples from sharing economic benifits, beliving them to be unconstitutional and market infringements, making her palatable to both sides of that devide. A Member of "Feminists for Life" a pro-life feminist orginization, she brings a new perspective to the table on the issue. She's loved by the Far-Right and she's young, being only 42, younger then Obama. Her eldest son is serving in the Army. She fought to open new alaskan ground for drilling and she has been an outspoken critic of republicans who have ethical reform problems. She has the highest approval ratings of any statewide elected official in the United States.

[EDIT- I was incorrect stating she had the highest approval ratings for any state-wide elected offical. She has the highest approval rating for ANY major elected offical (Congressman and up). Her disapproval rating is 5%. It's pretty nuts.]

Cons- She's only a 1 term governor, but she looks to be coasting to her second term. She has no Foreign Policy Experience. She's from Alaska, a region not in danger of going democratic and not an electoral prize. She's totally unknown outside of conservative circles and Alaska. Canadians know her better then we do.

My Take- Quite possibly McCain's best pick on any list. I might be nuts, but Palin seems like a brilliant candidate, an older female Bobby Jindal. Want to win Women Voters? Put Palin on the list. She's also a fairly attractive woman, something most men will not be too upset about. Can't praise this pick enough... sadly she doesn't seem to be campaigning at all for the job and I've never seen a McCain aide even mention her name. Oh well... She can run for president herself in 2012.

ODDS- 19 to 1

Rob Portman- Ohio congressman, former director of Bush's office of Budget and Management.

Pros- Economic Conservitive Chops, Ohio Roots will help in that Vital battleground state. very well-liked by establishment republicans and movement conservitives. The very model of a modern republican politican, in a good way.

Cons- Boring. Might not deliver Ohio. Unknown. served in the bush administration, making him toxic.

My Take- an OK pick, even though there are some corners that are pushing for portman hard.

ODDS- 30 to 1

Joe Lieberman- Senator from Connecticut, second half of the 2000-era Gore-Lieberman ticket. Former Democrat, now "Independent Democrat", whatever that means. Early McCain supporter.

Pros- Line-crossing bi-partisan senator. Having him on the ticket shows he's not a typical republican. The Far Right kinda likes him because of the War. helps deliver Florida and perhaps parts of New England. Popular with Independants.

Cons- Pretty much a liberal on non Foreign policy issues. loathed by the democrats- putting him on the ticket makes the race much nastier. Doesn't relay help as far as battleground states go.

My Take- Destined to be a Secretary of Whatever in the McCain administration, and not much else.

ODDS- 35 to 1

Fred Thompson- Former Senator from Tennessee, former District Attorney from New York on the TV show Law and Order.

Pros- Movement conservatives salivate over him. Is very charismatic. McCain and he are old friends from there senate days together.

Cons- Not terribly exciting as a presidental candidate, the wind has gone out of his sails long ago. Dosn't do anything that another candidate dose for McCain better.

My Take- Not a bad choice, just not a great one either.

Odds- 30 to 1

Colin Powell- Former Chairman of the Joint chiefs of Staff, Secretary of State during the second Bush Administration's first term.

Pros- Is Colin Powell. Makes Obama look like a precocious tool.

Cons- Um... old? Too awesome? Might cause overload of Kick-assitude between him and McCain causing the republican ticket to explode? Apparently likes Obama.

My Take- Its Colin Freaking Powell, what do you think my take is, you fool!

ODDS- 100 to 1 (if he didn't run in '96, he's not going to accept now)