Clinton Supporters for McCain Pt. 2

this may end up being a long-running series if the Senator's Blog has anything to say about it...

Senator Clinton has really grown on us over here in Crystal City over the past few months. She ran an impressive campaign, and proved herself to be an impressive candidate and as John McCain has said, inspired a generation of women. Ultimately, and ironically, it seems she fell victim to a vast left-wing conspiracy that resented her generally centrist foreign policy views (early support for the Iraq war, support for Kyl-Lieberman, unwavering support for Israel, etc.).

And so it was interesting that she barely touched on foreign policy in her concession speech today. She mentioned Iraq only twice, she mentioned terrorism only once, and she didn't mention Iran at all. After all, her serious approach to each of these issues proved liability in the Democratic primary. She spent years building a strong record on national security, and in the end her party opted for a candidate with no national security experience at all.

Senator Clinton also didn't mention John McCain once during her speech. This came as something of a surprise over here, and a pleasant one at that. But it's clear that John McCain and Hillary Clinton respect each other -- and there is a genuine affection for her here at McCain HQ. During her speech there was no small amount of pleading with the TV: 'Don't do it, you can still win!'

What can we draw from this?

• McCain will try and make the argument to Clinton voters that Clinton was forced out by a "vast left-wing conspiracy"
• McCain will note that McCain and Clinton have similar Foreign Policy ideals (not counting that whole Iraq War pullout idea)
• Constantly talk about "genuine affection" and "respect". I'd be shocked if the Vodka Drinking Contest Story didn't burst forward again in the coming months.
• Carefully note when and where Clinton name-drops McCain, analyzing it's context and perhaps making the argument that "she didn't mean it". They are clearly pointing out here that Clinton endorsed Obama without attacking McCain... is that a clue for Clinton Supporters or is it just Clinton going out on a high note?

Looks like the courting is on full force...

Clinton Supporters for McCain?

It seems to me that most people fall into one of two camps on the "What happens to Clinton's supporters now?" question.

The first camp are the Vengeful Voter thinkers. According to these folk, Senator Clinton's supporters are so angry at there candidates loss/the vile coming from the far left about the Clinton family/the "unsportsmanlike" campaign by Obama/everything else, that they are going to either stay home in the fall or (GASP!) vote for John McCain, a guy who most democrats don't view as being the Devil incarnate.

The second camp are the Party Line thinkers. These people are of the opinion that Senator Clinton's supporters are still democrats first and foremost and that they're going to come together around Obama with a few words of unity from his silver tongue. They believe that McCain's opposition to abortion and dislike of goverment mandated/run health care will remind the Clintonites that they have much more in common with Obama then the GOP.

Who's right? If I had to pick one, I'd go with the Party Line people. Democrats come home to democrats, just like I'm convinced in the fall republicans will come home to republicans. That being said there will be some attrition from the Dems to McCain on a number of fronts, primarily coming from Blue-Collar voters and Women.

My Mother would never say it, god bless her, but if Clinton had been the democratic nominee, she probably would have voted for her to try and see a woman president. She loathes Obama, and several of her close friends, who tend to lean democratic, feel similarly.

If McCain can make overtures to these groups by sending out surrogates that can talk to them in ways they understand (Carly Fiorina to the Women, Fred Thompson to the Blue-Collar men) I think McCain can pick up an enough voters to win this thing... but it'll be working against the tide. Most Democratic voters will vote Democrat in the fall, make no mistake. The few we pick off could be important though, so remember the slogan for your Clinton-Loving friends- McCain: He's Not the Devil!

Veestakes! Update: Romney and Clinton

Mark Halperin is the best reporter-cum-blogger in the game. I trust his instincts implicitly. And thus Romney gets a big boost and Clinton gets a knock down.


Mitt Romney

ODDS- 6-to-1

Hillary Clinton

ODDS- 4-to-1

The Post-Nomination Bump

Expect over the course of the next few days Obama to get a big bump in national polls (if that hasn't already started). Over the next few months they should start to level out... unless he can't controll the Clinton for VP story that's going to very quickly spin out of control.

Obama's going to lead in the polls but that WILL change depending on how he handles the fallout from the primaries. Anything he says is going to be analyzed and if he sounds even remotly smug or condescending the Clintonites are going to pounce. it's not going to be pretty.

She's Out

Using my "Magic Number" theory, Clinton officially has to drop out of the race. She didn't capture ANY of her three targets, losing Montana (her last chance to pick up some big superdelegate endorsements) and actually ended up LOSING popular vote ground to Obama. Sure she wins the popular vote in about half the ways to count it up, but that's not enough.

It's no longer a matter of if, it's a matter of when.

It's over!

And thus ends (for now) the saga of Hillary and Barack. Most of the major nets are now calling the nomination for good ol' barry (popular vote be damned, it didn't help gore so why should it help hillary?).

Now the real games begin. The Geezer Vs the God, the Hero Vs the Hope Haver, the man of subsance vs the man of... no substance.

Chance as of right now that Obama is our next president- 60%.

Chance I'm voting for John McCain- 95%.

Chance I'm going to drink on election night- 100%.

Game on!

Magic Number Update...

The Page is reporting Obama's Magic number is down to 36.5 with more to come. It'll take a big win in SD and a come from behind win in Montana to save Clinton at this rate...

It's important to note that Montana's remaining superdelegates including Governor Brian Schweitzer, Senator Jon Tester, Senator Max Baucus, and party chairman Dennis McDonald have all pledged to give there delegates to the winner of tonights primary (despite the fact that Baucus' Montana home has an Obama sign in the window). Everyone expects the state to go for obama thus netting him superdelegates that are probably favorable to him anyway. Still, a clinton upset would cast so many things in doubt...

The Magic Number

There are 4 magic numbers to consider for tomorrow.

1- 24,586. This is the number of votes Hillary needs to gain to pass Obama in the most "Reasonable" Popular Vote count. (Counting all states with primaries but Michigan, and no "Caucus Estimates")

2- 44,667. The Number of votes needed for Hillary to pass Obama in the most "Inclusive" count of the popular vote. (Counting Michigan while giving the "Undecided" votes to Obama, and counting the "Caucus Estimates")

3- 134,808. The Number of votes needed for Hillary to pass Obama in the only remaining category above the two I've already listed. (One not counting Michigan, but counting the "Caucus Estimates")

4- 41.5. The number of delegates Obama claims to need to "Clinch" the nomination. If between Delegates awarded by the two states voting tomorrow and a rush of supers the media has been reporting, he'll declare victory.


If Clinton can get the first number, I think she sticks in for a while to make the argument she won, she'll get pressured out in a week or so. If she gets the second number, she sticks in till the convention rolls around, drop out just before or AT the convention. If she gets the third number (almost impossible) she'll have a real argument that she should be the nom and sticks through the entire convention. If she gets none of them and Obama gets his number, it's all over she resigns on Wednesday.

Keep watching folks, this is gonna be fun!

Could she actualy win?

It's popular online at this time to start writing the obituaries of the Clinton Campaign (indeed, many media sources wrote Obits for Clinton every night of the campaign since the start of the season), but could she actually pull it off? Could the legitimacy of the Florida voters combined with a big win in Puerto Rico give her the undisputed popular vote count? Could she parlay this popular vote lead into victory at the convention?

I sure hope so.

Let me explain for a moment- I'm a McCainiac, I have been for years. I'm drinking the kool-aide on the guy and think he'd make a supremely fantastic American president. Unfortunately I have no such illusions about Barack Obama. Barry is the first serious presidential candidate in my lifetime to scare me, truly and deeply scare me. I don't think he knows square one about how to lead America and has an almost Bush-Level Niavte about what the world thinks about us. Gore, Kerry, Bill Clinton, they were people I didn't want to see in office, but I was positive America would still be here when they were done. Barry Obama? Not so much (then again, he scares me less the Howard Dean...)

So in this election I have a chance to be either very pleased with America's choice or terrified with America's choice. IF Obama is the nominee. If Clinton pulls of what would go down as the greatest comeback in American primary history (Sorry J-Mac, be happy with #2) I'd get a chance to be very pleased or mildly unhappy... but positive that america would still be here in 4 years when we vote her out of office.

So can she win? Perhaps. She's going to need a favorably worded decision from the RBC today in order to pull it off and a 15-to-20 point lead in PR when they vote to make her argument, but stranger things have happened...

You, Me, HRC and the RBC

Never before (and hopefully never again) have I been interesting in what a sub-committee of the DNC is doing. Today the "Democratic" party's Rules and Bylaws Committee (AKA the RBC) meets to decide if they're going to count the votes of several million somewhat loyal party members. It will basically decide the fate of the clinton campaign.

Tonight Obama will declare Victory in the campaign, regardless of the outcome of the meeting. Clinton will probably (if she's smart) counter-address him from Puerto Rico or Montana. Stay Tuned...

Veepstakes! Vol. 2- Obama's Big Five

In Veepstakes! Vol. 1 I gave you a look at who I consider to be the 5 top contenders for McCain's VP spot (don't worry if your favorite was not on the list, Vol. 3 will give a look at McCain's Darkhorse choices). Here in Number 2, I'll give you the 5 top contenders to Obama's second spot (assuming of course he can beat back the Clintons). Reminder: I'm going to try and be as non-partisan as possible with these picks, viewing them for there electability rather then there personal image or choices. I'll give the pros the cons, my take and the odds they'll be the pick. Here we go!

BARACK OBAMA-

Hillary Clinton- If you don't know who Hillary Clinton is by now I can't help you. The former first lady and current junior senator from my homestate is a household name.

Pros- She's a Clinton, and they tend to be able to win elections (the democratic primary non-withstanding). She connects well with "White Middle-Class" voters and has managed to brilliantly position herself as a champion of the little guy. A great campaigner with a solid record of reaching across the isle, some conservatives now like her more then the republican nominee. Picking her could be Obama's best shot at uniting the party again. Her husband becomes another great tool in the general election, provided he can keep on message. Also, she probably has enough delegates to FORCE him to pick her if she wants to so he might pick her to avoid looking weak.

Cons- Highly polarizing. High unfavorables. His most die-hard supporters (aka MSNBC) loath her. Having her on the ticket also ruins what most consider his greatest asset- the "Change" message (We would have had a bush or a Clinton on a major party ticket every election since 1980). Her husband has seemingly lost his ablity to keep his mouth shut since

My Take- A Bad Choice. Clinton can't do much but drag the Obamessiah off his perch at this point. She's old-school retail politics and picking her makes Obama a part of that same system. He'd be better off offering her a high-profile cabinet post then the Vice-Presidency. Still, if she wants it there's almost nothing he can do to stop her other then playing the same kind of hardball that would damage him as much as picking her. In other words, he might be screwed.

ODDS- 2 to 1

Jim Webb- Former Reagan-Era Republican Navy Secretary, Vietnam Vet, and now Democratic Senator.

Pros- from a state the democrats have been doing wonders in in recent years, Virgina, Webb brings not only Foreign policy experience to the table but could bring Virgina into the democratic column. His populist themes are tailor-made for the current political climate and he would undoubtedly help with less-educated white southerners that Obama needs to court.

Cons- He's insane. He shoots his mouth off more then he should. He apparently doesn't want to be vice-president. He's been in the senate even less then Obama has, and somehow has more legislative experience. He wrote novels where men engaged in sex acts with small boys.

My Take- A bad choice. He's good for Obama in many ways, but the odds are very good that he'll say something during the campaign that will hurt more then it helps. He's a lazy campaigner that doesn't like to be told what to do. If he disagrees with Obama on something he's going to make it known, and that could be destructive on the trail.

ODDS- 10 to 1

Tim Kaine- Current governor of Virginia, moderate democrat and early Obama supporter (back when supporting Obama was seen as a risky thing to do, dare you anger the Clinton gods and gain there wrath)

Pros- Would help greatly with white Christan voters, particularly Conservative evangelicals that are wary about McCain. Brings Virgina into the dem column and becomes the southern ambassador for Barack Obama. brings executive experience running a red state. Proven crossover appeal and a good campaigner overall.

Cons- Only served one term as governor (then again, in VA you can't serve more then on term in Richmond...). Pro-Life stance could hurt him with female voters still stinging over the clinton loss. His religious overtones may remind the far-left of bush's early speeches. Not well known. Limited appeal in western states. Adds zero FP experience.

My Take- Good Pick. He's squeaky-clean, has crossover appeal and is a longtime obama backer. He helps Obama win Virginia, and perhaps some other southern states. Only downside would be that he adds no real foreign policy experience (though his time as a missionary in Honduras may count for something later on). Overall he's still a good choice.

ODDS-4 to 1

Wesley Clark- Former NATO commander in Kosovo, 4-Star general, Clinton family friend, Candidate for President in 2004.

Pros- Could be seen as VP candidate to unite party with his deep ties to the Clinton camp. Brings international credibility and military chops. Could bring Arkansas with him into the dem column.

Cons-No real goverment experience. Who remembers Kosovo these days? He's never won an election for anything. Domestic views untested. Poor debater.

My Take- A good pick. His lack of goverment exposure becomes a positive with obama as it reinforces change while bringing southern cred and military experience to the table. Would help heal the rift between Obama and the Clinton wing of the party. The fact his veiws are unknown would help him get in lockstep with obama without been seen as a flip-flopper. Probably the best choice on this list.

ODDS- 5 to 1

Kathleen Sebelius- Governor of Kansas.

Pros-Democrat from one of the reddest states in the union. BRILLIANT political operator (she got a GOP state chairman to switch parties to become her running mate) she adds savvy to the obama ticket. Her father was the governor of Ohio, making her popular there as well. Also, a woman.

Cons- Her views on abortion may ensure that the Christian vote goes for McCain. Supports late-term abortions unwaveringly, taking even moderates by surprise. The Clinton supporters would fume if Obama picked a woman not named Hillary.

My Take- A mixed bag. She's a good campaigner, but there seems to be enough dirt on her abortion stance being hardline to successfully paint her and obama as far-left on the issue (something that's not a winning issue at the ballot box.) She's more likely to try and win Brownbacks senate seat in 2010.

ODDS- 12 to 1

Defending HRC on RFK

There are lots of things I don't like doing in this life that I have to. Talking to stupid people, being exposed to the sun, light exercise... but the one I've found myself enduring the most of lately is defending Hillary R. Clinton. So here I go again.

The flap on Clinton's "Assassination" comment is utterly moronic. She invoked Kennedy's assassination to show that he was STILL CAMPAIGNING in june when he got shot. Everyone remembers that Kennedy was assassinated during the primaries. The first season of 24 is based on it!

And of course the flap is led by the "Worst Person in the World" Keith Olberman, a man who turns hyperbole and overreaction into bizarre and nauseating art form.

News to Olbermann- Your Journalistic Bias is showing. Sure you never had a "Thrill up your leg" moment like your cohort in clear Bias, Chris Matthews, but you haven't earned what Matthews has earned. You got your TV show from being a loud-mouthed sportscaster, not from being a real political player and commentator like Matthews was. You want to play in the big leagues like your Idol Edward R. Murrow, then you've got to actualy start reporting the news like a real journalist rather then spinning your wheels at people you don't like. Unfortunately you were never a real journalist to begin with so I doubt you can do anything to fix that.

[This comment was edited after posting]