Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Veepstakes! Vol. 2- Obama's Big Five

In Veepstakes! Vol. 1 I gave you a look at who I consider to be the 5 top contenders for McCain's VP spot (don't worry if your favorite was not on the list, Vol. 3 will give a look at McCain's Darkhorse choices). Here in Number 2, I'll give you the 5 top contenders to Obama's second spot (assuming of course he can beat back the Clintons). Reminder: I'm going to try and be as non-partisan as possible with these picks, viewing them for there electability rather then there personal image or choices. I'll give the pros the cons, my take and the odds they'll be the pick. Here we go!

BARACK OBAMA-


Hillary Clinton- If you don't know who Hillary Clinton is by now I can't help you. The former first lady and current junior senator from my homestate is a household name.

Pros- She's a Clinton, and they tend to be able to win elections (the democratic primary non-withstanding). She connects well with "White Middle-Class" voters and has managed to brilliantly position herself as a champion of the little guy. A great campaigner with a solid record of reaching across the isle, some conservatives now like her more then the republican nominee. Picking her could be Obama's best shot at uniting the party again. Her husband becomes another great tool in the general election, provided he can keep on message. Also, she probably has enough delegates to FORCE him to pick her if she wants to so he might pick her to avoid looking weak.

Cons- Highly polarizing. High unfavorables. His most die-hard supporters (aka MSNBC) loath her. Having her on the ticket also ruins what most consider his greatest asset- the "Change" message (We would have had a bush or a Clinton on a major party ticket every election since 1980). Her husband has seemingly lost his ablity to keep his mouth shut since

My Take- A Bad Choice. Clinton can't do much but drag the Obamessiah off his perch at this point. She's old-school retail politics and picking her makes Obama a part of that same system. He'd be better off offering her a high-profile cabinet post then the Vice-Presidency. Still, if she wants it there's almost nothing he can do to stop her other then playing the same kind of hardball that would damage him as much as picking her. In other words, he might be screwed.

ODDS- 2 to 1

Jim Webb- Former Reagan-Era Republican Navy Secretary, Vietnam Vet, and now Democratic Senator.

Pros- from a state the democrats have been doing wonders in in recent years, Virgina, Webb brings not only Foreign policy experience to the table but could bring Virgina into the democratic column. His populist themes are tailor-made for the current political climate and he would undoubtedly help with less-educated white southerners that Obama needs to court.

Cons- He's insane. He shoots his mouth off more then he should. He apparently doesn't want to be vice-president. He's been in the senate even less then Obama has, and somehow has more legislative experience. He wrote novels where men engaged in sex acts with small boys.

My Take- A bad choice. He's good for Obama in many ways, but the odds are very good that he'll say something during the campaign that will hurt more then it helps. He's a lazy campaigner that doesn't like to be told what to do. If he disagrees with Obama on something he's going to make it known, and that could be destructive on the trail.

ODDS- 10 to 1

Tim Kaine- Current governor of Virginia, moderate democrat and early Obama supporter (back when supporting Obama was seen as a risky thing to do, dare you anger the Clinton gods and gain there wrath)

Pros- Would help greatly with white Christan voters, particularly Conservative evangelicals that are wary about McCain. Brings Virgina into the dem column and becomes the southern ambassador for Barack Obama. brings executive experience running a red state. Proven crossover appeal and a good campaigner overall.

Cons- Only served one term as governor (then again, in VA you can't serve more then on term in Richmond...). Pro-Life stance could hurt him with female voters still stinging over the clinton loss. His religious overtones may remind the far-left of bush's early speeches. Not well known. Limited appeal in western states. Adds zero FP experience.

My Take- Good Pick. He's squeaky-clean, has crossover appeal and is a longtime obama backer. He helps Obama win Virginia, and perhaps some other southern states. Only downside would be that he adds no real foreign policy experience (though his time as a missionary in Honduras may count for something later on). Overall he's still a good choice.

ODDS-4 to 1

Wesley Clark- Former NATO commander in Kosovo, 4-Star general, Clinton family friend, Candidate for President in 2004.

Pros- Could be seen as VP candidate to unite party with his deep ties to the Clinton camp. Brings international credibility and military chops. Could bring Arkansas with him into the dem column.

Cons-No real goverment experience. Who remembers Kosovo these days? He's never won an election for anything. Domestic views untested. Poor debater.

My Take- A good pick. His lack of goverment exposure becomes a positive with obama as it reinforces change while bringing southern cred and military experience to the table. Would help heal the rift between Obama and the Clinton wing of the party. The fact his veiws are unknown would help him get in lockstep with obama without been seen as a flip-flopper. Probably the best choice on this list.

ODDS- 5 to 1

Kathleen Sebelius- Governor of Kansas.

Pros-Democrat from one of the reddest states in the union. BRILLIANT political operator (she got a GOP state chairman to switch parties to become her running mate) she adds savvy to the obama ticket. Her father was the governor of Ohio, making her popular there as well. Also, a woman.

Cons- Her views on abortion may ensure that the Christian vote goes for McCain. Supports late-term abortions unwaveringly, taking even moderates by surprise. The Clinton supporters would fume if Obama picked a woman not named Hillary.

My Take- A mixed bag. She's a good campaigner, but there seems to be enough dirt on her abortion stance being hardline to successfully paint her and obama as far-left on the issue (something that's not a winning issue at the ballot box.) She's more likely to try and win Brownbacks senate seat in 2010.

ODDS- 12 to 1

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