So, welcome to
Veepstakes, the first in a series on Washington's favorite guessing game- the selection of a Vice-President for the Republican and Democratic tickets this November. Let me preface this by saying that this is one of those articles where I'm going to try and be non-partisan and look at what would be best for the ticket electorally. Each candidate will be followed by a pro and a con, letting you know why that specific candidate would be useful or useless to the campaign, followed by the odds I think they'll be nominated. In later additions I'll be looking at more out of the box candidates and will be following stories about the competitors.
JOHN MCCAIN-Tim Pawlenty- Considered by many to be the odds on favorite for the spot,
Pawlenty is the governor of Minnesota, a consistent conservative, and a long-time supporter of McCain.
Pros- From the competitive Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin area, T-Paw helps put the upper mid-wests 27 electoral votes in play and probably brings Minnesota into the McCain column. He brings executive experience and a fairly good reputation among the right-wing of the party, an area most commentators believe McCain, with his moderate maverick image, needs to shore up.
Cons-
Has a tendency to say stupid things. The Establishment doesn't like him. And he seems to drag McCain down in
public polls, turning close states into blowouts for the other side (probably due to his name sounding stupid). He's not well known outside of the Upper Mid-West and isn't the most charismatic of potential veeps.
My Take- A Bad Choice.
Pawlenty brings nothing to the ticket that someone else wouldn't bring, and has baggage that would harm McCain on the trail. It's also snotty and
presumptuous to have someone in your employ
register a website for your run.ODDS- 4 to 1
Bobby Jindal- First Term Governor of Louisiana,
Jindal is lauded by conservative columnists and seen as the face of the New GOP. He's also a first generation Indian-American governor, making him one of the few elected Minority members of the Republican Party.
He was invited to McCain's Potential Veep Pow-Wow in Sedona.Pros-
Did I mention conservatives love him? He's Indian and would most likely bring members of that closely knit community over to the GOP, perhaps to stay. He's gotten raves for past work in Louisiana and has proven to be a great campaigner (he's a first generation immigrant who's become a first term governor, '
nuff said). He also shares a passion for "good government" (His major efforts in Baton Rouge have been on ethics reform).
Cons-
Jindal on the ticket steals one of McCain's best arguments- That
Obama is too inexperienced to be running for national office.
Jindal is only one year into his first term, and only served two terms in the house, meaning that he has slightly more experience in non-state legislature then
Obama.
My Take- A Good Pick overall.
Jindal shores up McCain's support among the far right AND helps him move into the center. He backs up McCain's Reform credentials and makes him look more energetic. I don't think America is going to go for the inexperience argument (it didn't stop them from electing
GWB) so it might be worth it. Still, he hasn't finished a single term in the governors mansion, and would seem to be more suited to deliver the Keynote address at the Republican Convention then be veep.
ODDS 18 to 1
Mitt Romney- One term governor of the state of Massachusetts, savior of the Salt Lake City
Olympics and highly successful hedge fund millionaire, Willard "Mitt" Romney is most widely known as a man who spent over 30 million dollars of his own money on the 2008 republican primaries.
Pros- The rare times when Romney seemed to really connect with voters was when he was discussing his first love, economics. It's this ease in the economic arena that McCain could benefit from the most since he has admitted that economics is not his strong suit. Romney reassures the skittish investor class that the GOP is not abandoning them, even if McCain has been railing against CEO pay. Romney would also bring his money with him, not only the large fund raising network he built before Iowa, but his personal bank account, allowing him to help the campaign should it fall on hard times.
Cons- Romney's persona is a little TOO squeaky clean and as such people tend to view him as a bigger stiff then Al Gore. Social Conservatives, already afraid of McCain, see Romney's Mormonism and are reluctant to pull the lever for him. In addition, Romney and McCain seem to genuinely dislike each other, and the media would note it constantly. Romney was also a Hedge Fund manager, and in a year that seems to stink of voter backlash against Wall Street and the Banks, Romney could remind them of that even more.
My Take- A Mixed Bag. McCain needs to reassure voters on economic issues and Romney would be able to do that in spades. The man clearly understands how our national monetary system works and can speak very convincingly on it. He complements McCain well on almost every issue, shoring up his weak spots and compensating for his few biographical gaps. He's also won election in one of the most Democratic states in the union, albeit as a very different politician. However, these points are all made moot if McCain and Romney really do loath
each other as much as the press indicates they do. Also, he comes off as a giant Tool.
ODDS- 10 to 1
Mike Huckabee- Ex-Governor of Arkansas, Ex-Baptist Minister,
Ex-Fatty,
Huckabee was the second tier candidate that broke through and made it to the big leagues, managing an upset victory in Iowa on a non-existent budget and no staff.
Pros-
Huckabee is, in many ways, Romney's exact opposite.
Huckabee brings an enormous popular charisma on his side (His rise in the polls was based almost purely on his well-received debate performances). In the last year he's become the new figurehead of a more compassionate Religious Right, uniting almost all social conservatives behind his run.
Huckabee also steadfastly refused to go negative during the primary, and McCain reportedly likes the governor quite a bit.
Cons-
Huckabee scares the Tax-Cut crowd like Romney scares the religious right. His economic performance as governor has been widely derided on the right, and he has the same apostasies to conservatives that McCain dose- the exact facets that make them compatible make them intolerable as a team to segments of the republican populace.
My Take- A fairly good match, if they can find another way to keep traditional conservatives on board.
Huckabee would be a good get-out-the-vote leader for McCain with the religious right, while also acting as a good faith ambassador to minority Christian groups. He's proven
he can preform well among African Americans and he's charismatic enough to send to any Christian community and expect him to come back having changed some minds. Still, the far right hates him as much as McCain so unless J-Mac is going to write them off, he's going to have to promise them a big
cabinet post before the election is over.
ODDS- 8 to 1
Charlie Crist- The wildly popular governor of a state that has a slight importance to national politics (Florida),
Crist is a furious campaigner and decent legislator. Many pundits credit McCain's Nomination-securing win in Florida to
Crist' influence and endorsement in the state.
Pros- Takes Florida into the McCain Column without doubt. This alone would get him on the list, but in addition he brings a deft skill at campaigning along with him. He's good at raising money and there is a sense that not only dose McCain like him, but McCain "owes" him.
Cons- Is as Tan as McCain is pale.
They Look TERRIBLE standing next to eachother. Doesn't really add anything to the ticket beyond Florida. Is the only candidate I can think of that has been accused of
being gay and
fathering children out of wedlock simultaneously (that's right they make the accusations in the same article).
My Take-
Ok Choice. I'm still kinda shocked to see the overly pale McCain standing next to the overly tanned
crist, but beyond that he doesn't really fire up the base or make inroads beyond Florida. The argument that he can bring Florida with him is his best one, look to see lots of polls of a McCain-Christ Ticket vs.
Obama-Whoever. If Christ can deliver the state when McCain would lose it, he just might be the nominee.
ODDS- 14 to 1
In the next
Veepstakes I'll bring you
Obama's own version of the Big Five
