Monday, June 2, 2008

The Magic Number

There are 4 magic numbers to consider for tomorrow.

1- 24,586. This is the number of votes Hillary needs to gain to pass Obama in the most "Reasonable" Popular Vote count. (Counting all states with primaries but Michigan, and no "Caucus Estimates")

2- 44,667. The Number of votes needed for Hillary to pass Obama in the most "Inclusive" count of the popular vote. (Counting Michigan while giving the "Undecided" votes to Obama, and counting the "Caucus Estimates")

3- 134,808. The Number of votes needed for Hillary to pass Obama in the only remaining category above the two I've already listed. (One not counting Michigan, but counting the "Caucus Estimates")

4- 41.5. The number of delegates Obama claims to need to "Clinch" the nomination. If between Delegates awarded by the two states voting tomorrow and a rush of supers the media has been reporting, he'll declare victory.

If Clinton can get the first number, I think she sticks in for a while to make the argument she won, she'll get pressured out in a week or so. If she gets the second number, she sticks in till the convention rolls around, drop out just before or AT the convention. If she gets the third number (almost impossible) she'll have a real argument that she should be the nom and sticks through the entire convention. If she gets none of them and Obama gets his number, it's all over she resigns on Wednesday.

Keep watching folks, this is gonna be fun!

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