In my opinion, the greatest threat to John McCain winning the presidency is not the fact people are tired of conservitivism (though I think at this rate they're willing to try something else) nor Obama's presence and pomp, It's the fact that the media is playing his win (perhaps correctly) as a huge historic moment. His election would, in the eyes of many, absolve us of our sins and move us into a new generation of understanding and blah blah blah blah blah.
I don't buy that argument. I have know since a young age that we would see the first Black, Woman, Hispanic, Asian, 70-somthing and 30-something presidents in my lifetime. Equality is one of the few things that will (and should) always be on the rise in America. Because I had this unshakable belief that this will happen, and happen while I'm around, I have underestimated the political momentum that a "Historic" pick would get.
In order to win the presidency McCain has to do something no candidate has done since... well... Reagan, Kennedy and Teddy Roosevelt. He needs to add something to the national Mythos. He needs to create a historic change GREATER then that Obama is offering (or at least close). He needs to promise sweeping and overwhelming changes in our lives because that's what Captain Barry Big-Ears is offering. McCain needs to make sure everyone knows that his election would bring about historic change too, perhaps going to far as to promise a high-cabinet level office to Obama (Making him Secretary of State would be a powerful message that we're going to rebuild alliances). He needs to pick a Vice-President that's historic too, because theres nothing the media likes more then making history.
With these facts in mind I'm upgrading the chance of Obama being the next president to 65%. God help us all, the socialists are back.
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5 months ago